Brisbane Property Market Insights and Predictions

Introduction

Brisbane has one of the strongest capital housing markets in Australia and is likely to remain so throughout 2024, with property prices continuing to rise from strength to strength.

Over the past few years, the Brisbane housing market has soared an average of 55.2% since the onset of COVID-19, and is now at a new high price.

PropertyMedian priceΔ MoMΔ QoQΔ Annual
All Capital city dwellings$827,8220.9%3.1%16.1%
Capital city houses$920,0460.8%2.7%15.9%
Capital city units$600,2151.6%5.0%17.4%
Regional dwellings$629,9811.1%3.2%11.2%
Source CoreLogic, 1st May 2024

Brisbane’s Property Markets Update

More homes have been listed for sale and the Brisbane property market is expected to surge in 2024.

The construction downturn has restricted the supply of new units, placing demand on existing units.

Buyer and seller confidence picked up earlier this year, with the perception that expected rate cuts could increase borrowing capacity, causing buyers to spend more money.

Brisbane rental market commenced 2024 with more robust results for tenants with generally high rents,

  1. Brisbane’s housing vacancy rate is 0.9% with rents up 9.3% last year
  2. The vacancy rate for units in Brisbane is 1.0%, and rents were up 24.8% last year
Source SQM Research

Brisbane’s Rental Market is in Crisis

In recent years, the city has seen significant investment, with many people moving to Brisbane to take advantage of the job opportunities and high quality of life.

However, increasing migration has increased demand for rental properties, leading to a decrease in vacancy rates.

While the current vacancy rate in Brisbane may be beneficial for landlords, it’s a catalyst for the city’s already strained rental market with tenants increasingly struggling to find affordable housing.

Source SQM Research

Key Trends in the Brisbane Housing Market in 2024

Shifting Priorities
Demand for buildings, especially high-rise towers, other alternatives is likely to be reduced. In Brisbane’s inner suburbs, townhouses are in high demand.

High Income Buyers Lead
The market is mainly driven by high income households that have been least affected by the rising cost of living from COVID-19 in the market and preserved their savings.

Struggling Segments
Units, especially in high rise towers and new construction projects are expected to perform the worst. Properties in blue collar areas and newer housing can also feel more vulnerable to young families due to expected financial pressures.

Livability Factors
Buyers may prioritise housing with more space and security in areas with easy access to parks, shops, amenities, good schools, and public transit.

Places Nearby to Schools are Preferred
School catchment areas remain a major factor affecting property values ​​and investor decisions. Parents and investors prioritise locations in preferred school locations.

Lifestyle Focus
Buyers are looking for a property that offers the lifestyle they want, and education plays a key role in their decision making process.

Migration and Population Growth in Brisbane vs Property Values

Brisbane and Queensland owes a huge influx of immigrants to their strong property markets – amid the pandemic, lockdown, and property market boom many Australians, particularly from Victoria and NSW, have flocked northwards to the Sunshine state in search of deals to buy Property in lifestyle suburbs at affordable prices.

Queensland recorded population growth of 2.6% in the months 12 to 30 June 2023, above the national average (2.4%) and the third highest of all states and territories – behind Western Australia’s 3.1% growth. Victoria grew 2.7% later, over the same period , according to the latest ABS figures.

What sets Queensland apart from the rest, however, is that although net overseas migration rates dominate the figures (as elsewhere in other states), Queensland has high net interstate migration greater and responsible for population growth in Queensland 12 months to June 2023.

NSWQLDVIC
Interstate arrivals82,008107,93574,188
Interstate departures116,16675,68076,051
Net interstate migration-34,15832,255-1,863
Source ABS data

Queensland’s population is expected to increase by 16% when Brisbane hosts the 2032 Olympics, according to the federal government.

And the largest population in Australia’s most regionally-used region is predicted to shift to the city, with the majority of Queenslanders expected to stay in Greater Brisbane when the Olympic torch is lit at the Gabba.

Greater Brisbane is expected to grow faster than the rest of Queensland, with 1.9% projected for the capital in 2022-23, compared to 1.4% for the rest of the country.

That means Queensland’s population will grow over the coming decades, from the current 5.4 million people to 8.27 million in 2046.

Brisbane’s Top Performers in the Year 2023

Brisbane’s Housing Sales

FeatureSuburb / areaNumbers
Most expensive suburbNew farm (Brisbane inner city)$2,795,456
Most affordable suburbCollinsville (Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday)$155,002
Strongest 12-month growth in valuesMacgregor (Brisbane – south)24.70%
Strongest 12-month decline in valuesSunrise beach (Sunshine coast)-4.80%
Strongest 12-month growth in rentsMoranbah (Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday)20.50%
Highest gross rental yieldsCollinsville (Mackay- Isaac – Whitsunday)12.80%

Brisbane’s Unit Sales

FeatureSuburb / areaNumbers
Most expensive suburbNoosa heads (Sunshine coast)$1,707,637
Most affordable suburbLaguna quays (Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday)$92,428
Strongest 12 month growth in valuesSlacks creek (Logan – Beaudesert)27.40%
Strongest 12 month decline in valuesSunrise beach (Sunshine coast)-6.70%
Strongest 12 month growth in rentsMoranbah (Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday)19.60%
Highest gross rental yieldsMoranbah (Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday)10.70%

Brisbane Property Insights Expectations in 2024

  1. ANZ has predicted a 9-10% increase in property prices by 2024 in Brisbane.
  2. The CBA has predicted property prices will increase by 6% by 2024 in Brisbane.
  3. By 2024, NAB has predicted property prices in Brisbane will increase by 6.5%.
  4. Westpac has forecast an 8% increase in property prices by 2024 in Brisbane.
  5. PropTrack has predicted a 3-6% increase in property prices by 2024 in Brisbane.

Oxford Economics recently made the following prediction on where Brisbane house prices will be in 3 years.

Property Prices Prediction for 3 Years (by June 2027)

CityMedian priceTotal price growth
HousesUnitsHousesUnits
Brisbane$1.21M$0.71M19%23%
Combined capitals$1.34M$0.87M20%21%

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Disclaimer: The information presented above is in the sense of illustration and discussion only. Any party seeking to rely on content or otherwise should conduct their own due diligence and inquiries to ensure that it is relevant to their personal and business needs and circumstances.